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AMGN trend analysis

AMGN’s 60-minute trend is down, but this part of the cycle is the only one in which an additional turn can be take place. It’s rare, but if that happens then the 60-minute uptrend would be expected to run until the end of today. If the cycle does not add an extra turn the the trend should remain down until the end of today’s trading. EDIT: In the short time since I began this post AMGN has shot up, fallen back, and is now moving higher. This behavior indicates the possibility of an extra cycle point. This is not confirmed yet, and I will monitor and advise on it as the situation becomes clear. At the moment AMGN is making new highs for the day.

AMGN’s daily trend is up. As with UAL, both of my non-correlated timing models indicate an end to the daily trend eight trading days from now. The entry for this swing was at $51.40 on August 15th. Assuming a call option with a price of $400 and a minimum delta of 0.6, the profit as of this writing would be over 60%.

AMGN’s weekly trend is up. BUT a weekly cycle high is due now. This part of the weekly cycle is volatile, with the next weekly cycle low due two weeks after the current cycle high is made. Since the daily trend is strong, and the next daily cycle high is due after September 26th, the weekly uptrend should last until then. I will probably close out my position then, and reenter at the next weekly cycle low.

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7 Gold Stocks Analysts Predict Will Grow 15%

Seeking Alpha...

It’s all the rage. We’ve seen it take the headlines by storm recently, gaining never-before seen heights as this precious metal recently hit the $1,600/ounce ceiling. But then again, up to 5% falls are not uncommon for gold, so you need to know the right place to make hay when the sun shines.

One thing you have going for you no matter what, is that gold has, and always will be, seen as the undisputable standard for real value, even as central banks decide to do with their paper.

So unless you’re thinking of having an Egyptian tomb full of bullion for the afterlife, you might want to consider a more practical investment in a portfolio of the seven gold stocks presented below. Wall Street analysts predict a 15% annual earnings growth rate on these stocks over the next five years with at most 4% on the down side.

Royal Gold, Inc. (RGLD)

Headquartered in Denver, Colorado and traded on the NASDAQ Global Select Market under the symbol “RGLD,” and on the Toronto Stock Exchange under the symbol “RGL.”, Royal Gold, Inc. owns and manages royalties on gold and other precious metal production in some of the world's most prolific gold regions. This stock posted a 15% return this year and more than 90% quarterly earnings growth rate. Royal Gold Inc., has a market capitalization of $2.88 billion and a trailing P/E ratio of 75.7x. RGLD is expected to earn $0.09 per share in 2012.

As a royalty company, Royal Gold is also primarily an investor, so it painstakingly chooses its portfolio investment while eliminating the operational risks. RGLD's current stock price ($65.4) shows a positive sign as it is within 15% of the 52-week high ($67.29) and is showing good relative strength to the market. Notable strengths are low gearing and positive cash flow from operations even though ownership is mostly external to the company. Analysts refer to the stock as an ‘uncut gem’ due to its small capitalization still under the institutional buying radar, so no surprises when this stock really takes off.

Randgold Resources Ltd. (GOLD)

Randgold Resources is a gold mining and exploration company focused in Africa with listings on the London Stock Exchange and Nasdaq. Randgold has produced approximately 5.8 million ounces of gold and distributed more than $1.6 billion to stakeholders through its mining operations. This stock posted a 5% return last year but quarterly earnings declined 16.5% year on year. With market capitalization of $6.9 billion, GOLD has a trailing P/E ratio of 67.5x and is expected to earn $0.50 per share in 2012.

While we can’t completely discount the significant country and political threats despite the prevailing stability in the region, Randgold has potential for some of the most promising gold discoveries due to their concentrations in Western and Central Africa. Analysts expect earnings to grow at an average annual rate of 53.5%, even as actual stock performance continues to outperform previous estimates. With a strategy of targeting profitable gold deposits that have mineable gold reserves of three million ounces or more, Randgold already has sizable annual sales and 40.2% EPS growth over the last 10 years and strong internal financial management ratios with little reliance on debt financing.

New Gold, Inc. (NGD)

New Gold Inc. is listed on the Toronto Stock Exchange, and the NYSE under the symbol NGD. New Gold has a portfolio of global assets in the United States, Mexico, Australia, Canada and Chile as an intermediary gold producer. NGD gained 159% this year. With market capitalization at $4.5 billion, NGD shows a trailing P/E ratio of 25.3x. New Gold has a 30% interest in El Morro copper-gold Project in Chile and is expected to earn $0.21 per share next year.

Newmont Mining Corp. (NEM)

Headquartered near Denver, Colorado, Newmont Mining Corporation was founded in 1921 and publicly traded since 1925. Newmont is one of the world’s largest gold producers and is the only gold company included in the S&P 500 Index and Fortune 500. It has significant interests in the United States, Australia, Peru, Indonesia, Ghana, Canada, New Zealand and Mexico, and high standards in environmental management, health and safety and is part of the Dow Jones Sustainability World Index. NEM returned 11% during the last twelve months with a 45.5% quarterly earnings growth. It has a market capitalization of $26.7 billion and a trailing P/E ratio of 11.9x. NEM is expected to earn $2.24 per share in 2012.

Yamana Gold, Inc. (AUY)

A gold producer focused in Canada with land positions in Brazil, Argentina, Chile, Mexico and Colombia, Yamana plans to target gold consolidation opportunities with a primary focus in the Americas. AUY gained 29% during the last year with a 343.5% quarterly earnings growth rate. It has a market capitalization of $9.2 billion and a trailing P/E ratio of 20.4x. AUY is expected to earn $0.75 earn per share in 2012.

Eldorado Gold Corp. (EGO)

A Canadian international gold producer operating in China, Turkey, Brazil and Greece, Eldorado Gold Corporation is working on bringing up their production to approximately 1.5 million ounces of gold annually in 2015. The top performing S&P/TSX Composite Index in 2008 and in 2009, Eldorado Gold returned 34% last year and a 32% quarterly earnings growth. With a market capitalization of $8.9 billion it shows a trailing P/E ratio of 43x. It is expected to earn $0.52 per share in 2012.

Agnico-Eagle Mines Ltd. (AEM)

With headquarters in Canada, Agnico-Eagle is a gold producer that has been around for a while with operations in Canada, Finland and Mexico and the United States that has paid a cash dividend for 29 consecutive years. AEM gained 25% over the year and reported 83.5% growth in quarterly earnings. It has a market capitalization of $11.4 billion and a trailing P/E ratio of 34x with expectations of earning $0.55 per share. AEM, like other operators like it, are likely a better bet than ETF trust options like SPDR Gold Shares (GLD).

Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours.